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Dr. Harry Fair, Executive Director

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Dr. Thomas Blau is a consultant to the National Defense University (NDU), where he runs his national security seminar series for the General Accounting Office (13 years). He was on the regular faculty at NDU, 2001-2013. He taught courses on futures analysis and national security decision-making. He also served in management at NDU, including in curriculum support to two Middle Eastern war colleges. He continues to provide support to the NonProliferation Policy Education Center on a project to analyze intelligence-policy interactions in past cases of proliferation, aimed at inferring rules for future cases. He also is an adjunct faculty member at Johns Hopkins University, Center for Advanced Governmental Studies. He participated in the Good Judgment Project, and has worked in the Departments of Defense and Energy, and on the staff of Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. He also has worked in international aerospace business. He has published on missile defense, energy and trade security, infrastructure vulnerability, the aviation industry, and applying social theory to Iraq and Afghanistan. He studied defense policy and economics at the University of Chicago, earning a PhD.

Dr. Dawna Coutant is a social psychologist with an emphasis in how to bridge the gap between scientific research and its implementation by governmental and civic groups.. As a Visiting Professor at the University of Neuchatel, Switzerland, Institut de psychologie du travail et des organizations, she taught a graduate course in Cross-Cultural Organizational Psychology. While head of the Social Psychology Department at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, she assisted Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park (U.S. National Park Service) in implementing science-based activities for the public. As the Assistant Director of Undergraduate Leadership Programs at the Center for Public Leadership Studies, George Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, she coordinated the Eisenhower Leadership Development Program, including supervising group projects in which the students act as policy consultants for local government and community groups. Dr. Coutant also was a 100th percentile forecaster with the Good Judgment Project (GJP) in 2014 – 2015. This team won IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation competition for the most accurate forecasts of geopolitical questions. She typically has been ranking in the top 2% of forecasters in the current Good Judgment Open (http://Gjopen.com) Geopolitical and Economist Magazine forecasting challenges.

Carolyn Meinel currently is the President of M/B Research. She has worked with Dr. Fair and others at DARPA as a Science and Engineering Technical Advisor, also for Adm. John Poindexter's Information Assurance Office at DARPA; professional forecaster and futurist since 1975; award winning science writer. Meinel was a 100th percentile forecaster with the Good Judgment Project in 2014 – 2015. She typically ranks in the top 2% of forecasters in the current Good Judgment Open (http://Gjopen.com) Geopolitical and Iran forecasting challenges. In collaboration with Graham Morehead and Dr. Dawna Coutant, she has been assembling and cultivating a team of top forecasters from the Good Judgment Project and Good Judgment Open to analyze their forecasting records for lessons learned, and explore ways to improve accuracy, for example by melding human and machine forecasting techniques.

Graham Morehead currently is a Federal Solutions Engineer at BASIS Technology, which is on the winning EMBERS machine forecasting team with IARPA's Open Source Indicators Program. http://dac.cs.vt.edu/research-project/embers/. His research specialties include computational linguistics, artificial intelligence, and complex systems. His current focus is on how to meld the highly accurate machine forecasting technology pioneered with EMBERS with the inputs of human forecasters, this in collaboration with Dr. Coutant and Ms. Meinel.

Update: 04-26-2016, 11:18am