IARPA’s Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

ISIT and KadSci, LLC teamed to compete in this competition, which began in mid-May 2019 and ended Nov. 30, 2019.. We spent the first halfof the competition focusing on the science aspect. Then in August we used what we had learned to develop our solution and soared from 27th place in July to 4th place at the end. You can watch ISIT’s Carolyn Meinel explain some of how they accomplished this in a webinar sponsored by Basis Technology.

We also used our results as input to a redearch papar that has been published in the world’s leading journal on forecasting: What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? Christopher W.Karvetski, CarolynMeinel, Daniel T.Maxwell, YunziLu, Barbara A.Mellers, and Philip E.Tetlock.